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The New Belmont Club Site Is Up It is sad to say goodbye to Blogger. The painfully slow response of the last weeks has gone and it seems its old sprightly self again. If things don't work out on the other site, there's always a home to come back to. The Sitemeter was at 6,326,000 at the time of abandonment, which was a pretty good run. The new Belmont Club site is at http://belmontclub.wretchard.com . Alternatively, you can use this url: http://www.wretchard.com/blogs/the_belmont_club/default.aspx See you there!

Let the spinnin' wheel spin The two stories were related somehow, the nomination of Paul D. Wolfowitz for presidency of the World Bank and news that after 20 years of investigation the Canadian investigation into the bombing of an Air India flight had come up dry . The question was how. Wolfowitz's nomination only makes sense if the primary cause of world underdevelopment is perceived as political failure rather than the mere lack of investment. Its narrative relationship to the Canadian acquittal of the Air India bombing suspects is one of contrast: the failure of the Crown prosecution to prove its case being cast in opposite terms; a lack of technique rather than political failure. The really shocking thing about the Canadian decision was illustrating how two decades, $100 million in expenses and the best good will in the world could get no further than establishing there was a bomb aboard the plane the night it blew up. If the one air incident took that , what if, God forbi...

Let the spinnin' wheel spin The two stories were related somehow, the nomination of Paul D. Wolfowitz for presidency of the World Bank and news that after 20 years of investigation the Canadian investigation into the bombing of an Air India flight had come up dry . The question was how. Wolfowitz's nomination only makes sense if the primary cause of world underdevelopment is perceived as political failure rather than the mere lack of investment. Its narrative relationship to the Canadian acquittal of the Air India bombing suspects is one of contrast: the failure of the Crown prosecution to prove its case being cast in opposite terms; a lack of technique rather than political failure. The really shocking thing about the Canadian decision was illustrating how two decades, $100 million in expenses and the best good will in the world could get no further than establishing there was a bomb aboard the plane the night it blew up. If the one air incident took that , what if, God forbi...

Reply to Comments I'm can't reply to comments due to the extremely slow performance of Blogger, but the posting works a little better. Baron Bodissey said... The tactics the terrorists used -- the assault into the teargas, the fire and smoke, the locking up of the other prisoners -- were they something learned at jihad school, at the al-Qaeda camps, maybe? Or were they ad-hoc? I don't know whether any of this is standard Jihadi doctrine. My guess is they're ad hoc . Philippine prisons are some of the weirdest places on earth. Greg Sheridan has an article in National Interest , the Jihad Archipelago , in which he makes these revealing remarks about the Philippines, the Abu Sayyaf and its principal ally, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The Philippines is the strangest nation in Southeast Asia and the one with the strongest  Islamic extremist movement. It is predominantly Catholic (though with strong mystical influences) and more American than a...

At the Big House Readers who are curious will find a detailed account of the assault on the Abu Sayyaf prisoner rioters here . The picture that emerges is that of a police unit (SAF) that has reached a respectable level of competence but may be a little rough at the edges. plans had been drafted on how to assault the prison, outflank the superior firing positions of the gunmen and surprise them. Apparently to weaken the resolve of the enemy, SAF commander ordered all lights inside the jail compound turned off and the V-150 armored personnel carrier driven around the area. This was done every hour on the hour until daybreak yesterday. "We wanted them to stay awake and keep them guessing whether we would attack or not," said the SAF official. Then there was the less than perfect entry strategy. "The SAF raiders positioned themselves at both sides of the main gate of the Abu Sayyaf cell at the ground floor and tried to pry open the lock. But they were met by s...

The End of the Road KM mails to say that the Philippine police have stormed the prison the Abu Sayyaf  had taken over in a failed jailbreak. Reuters says seventeen prisoners died in the assault, crucially including three of the top Abu Sayyaf honchos. Philippine police have shot dead 17 prisoners as they stormed a jail in Manila to end a day-long stand-off with a group of Islamic militants who had snatched weapons from guards and killed three of them. ... Tear gas still shrouded the building as television showed hundreds of prisoners milling around on the top floor. Reyes said Alhamser Limbong, alias "Kosovo", Ghalib Andang, alias "Commander Robot", and Najdmi Sabdula, alias "Commander Global", were among the Abu Sayyaf leaders killed. Although I can't prove it my own unfounded instinct says that the Philippine cops have made sure the Peace Lobby and the human rights lawyers aren't going to be taking these Abu Sayyaf commanders to an...

The Angel with the Fiery Sword Remember how Philippine President Gloria Arroyo withdrew that nation's troops from Iraq to effect the release of a Filipino hostage? Well she didn't retreat far enough. Iraqi 'insurgents' have seized another hostage and Manila's officialdom has expressed 'gratitude' for their delay in beheading him. The Philippines Saturday lauded the recent extension granted by Iraqi hostage-takers on the deadline by which they had threatened to kill a Filipino hostage. The kidnappers of accountant Roberto Tarongoy had earlier said they would kill him by March 11 but a Philippine team in Iraq had reported the kidnappers had given an indefinite extension to the deadline Because of this, Presidential Spokesperson Ignacio Bunye: declared, "We thank God for this reprieve." The 'insurgents' have presented a new demand. The hostage's father "has appealed in a letter to Arroyo to 'heed the captors' de...

Fallout Shelter To Newsweek's Paul Tolme , University of Colorado outgoing President Elizabeth Hoffman's problems with Ward Churchill were all about preserving Free Speech in a nation grown increasingly intolerant. ... earlier this year, ethnic-studies professor Ward Churchill ignited a fierce debate over academic freedom because of a 2001 essay in which he called victims of the September 11 attacks "little Eichmanns." Hoffman and many members of the faculty defended Churchill's right to his opinions while outside of campus, and Colorado lawmakers called for his dismissal. ... Hoffman seemed particularly concerned about the Churchill situation. ... "We are so deeply divided as a country." This division, she says, threatens the foundation of liberal higher education. "The modern research university is a big and complex place," she says, "but it ultimately is about the generation of new ideas and the transfer of those new...

The Carnival of Manila Readers who think I exaggerate the incompetence of Manila should read veteran Filipino columnist Max Soliven . Throughout the day the nation had to listen to the demands of people who had just killed three jail guards and were on trial for multiple murder and kidnapping. They even found allies in the usual publicity-hungry politicians and human rights advocates who were falling all over themselves to get into the picture and sabotage police negotiations. And we wonder why the country is turning into a terrorist paradise. Not content with this summary disparagement, he added details in A murderous jailbreak try that turned into a disgusting circus . He describes how the mayor of the jail site, the Congressman representing the district of the jail site and a representative from the province the Abu Sayyaf suspects were born in began a bizzarre contest for the man best suited to represent their "constituents". Then a renowned "human right...

Harum Scarum The incapacity of the Philippine State was on display today as Abu Sayyaf rebels grabbed a guard's M-16 at a chowline in a maximum security prison and used it to gun down three guards before taking over the whole hoosegow. The Abu Sayyaf is a terrorist organization affiliated with Al Qaeda. This simple hostage taking situation became an immensely complicated exercise because it had to be resolved within the paralyzing and Byzantine political world of Manila. While lining up for breakfast rations at around 7 a.m., an unidentified bandit grabbed the M16 rifle of his guard and opened fire, Colonel Agrimero Cruz, Metro Manila police spokesman, said.  The Abu Sayyaf prisoners held the political initiative from start to finish. The BBC reports: The prisoners later contacted a local radio station, demanding talks with two senior Muslim officials and film star Robin Padilla, a Muslim convert. Police said they believed the prisoners were led by Alhamser Limbong and...

Update on the New Site First, I'd like to apologize for the inability of readers to reliable comment on the posts. Because we all go through the Blogger interface, any difficulties you may have experienced afflict me as well. Here's the update on the new site. I've got a domain and a hosting service. It will host more than a blog, though I'm not sure I'll activate all the possible features because the administrative burden may spin out of control. The weblog itself will be run on a product with a much greater feature set than Blogger, but it will not be one which most will have heard of. The source code for the entire application is distributed with it and that was the major consideration in choosing it. However, it is one of these open source thingies and there's no deluxe documentation, so it's taking a little time to figure things out. I finished getting something half decent up on my own web server -- that's been the focus of effort over the weekend ...

A Tale of Two Worlds Two articles paint radically different impressions of changes to United States strategic thinking. The first, by Mark Mazzetti of the Los Angeles Times , depicts a military establishment that has been hijacked by Operation Iraqi Freedom and the 'blunders' of Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. With Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld pushing for a "lighter, more lethal and highly mobile fighting force," the Pentagon scrapped as outdated the requirement that the U.S. military be large enough to simultaneously fight two large-scale wars against massed enemy armies. And it spent little time worrying about how to keep the peace after the shooting stopped. Something happened on the way to the wars of the future: The Pentagon became bogged down in an old-fashioned, costly and drawn-out war of occupation. ... Mazzetti's article goes on to emphasize that while the smaller forces favored by Donald Rumsfeld were sufficient to defeat a Third Worl...

Forward or Back? 2 In Forward or Back? I wrote: One wonders what the Syrians will do if the Lebanese opposition simply refuses to cooperate with a new Karami government. It would then fall to the Mukhabarat to break passive resistance.  ... One can imagine a scenario where the opposition calls a protest boycott; maybe people get money not to work.  ... To rule requires a lot more resources than to disrupt. Therein lies the Syrian strategic weakness. Events are still unfolding, but the noncooperation strategy is already being laid down. Whether it will succeed or not remains to be seen. The Financial Times reports that although the 'Syrian-backed' Karami has made conciliatory gestures, the opposition has so far rejected them. "The difficulties we all know about cannot be confronted without a government of national unity and salvation. We will extend our hand without conditions and wait for the other side," he said. "I will not form a cabinet ...

"It Never Existed" According to the MGCM5WAVCBQUJVC?xml=/news/2005/03/10/wsmoke10.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/03/1 0/ixworld.html" target="_blank">Telegraph , French authorities have airbrushed the cigarette out of John Paul Sarte's photograph. France's National Library has airbrushed Jean-Paul Sartre's trademark cigarette out of a poster of the chain-smoking philosopher to avoid prosecution under an anti-tobacco law. ... The library's president, Jean-Noël Jeanneney, confirmed that the cigarette had been discreetly smudged to comply with the 1991 loi Evin - a law banning tobacco advertising - but also so as not to frighten away potential sponsors from the exhibition, which opened yesterday. The practice of historical revisionism, which was a central theme to George Orwell's 1984 , was extensively practiced by Joseph Stalin. The target="_blank">NewsMuseum documents the "before and after" photographs...

Forward or back? The very large demonstrations in support of Syria sponsored by Hezbollah, whether forced or not, can be interpreted as the end of the "Cedar Revolution". There is certainly enough genuine nationalistic support for Syria within Syria itself. Syria Comment (Joshua Landis) says: Family members called me from Latakia to ask me what I though and to tell me how proud they were and what a great man Nasrallah is. I was out doing errands much of the day and all the shops had the TV on. Store owners and errand boys alike were leaning over their counters watching the demonstration with amazement and gratification. “This was the true Lebanon,” they insisted. “People from every part and every religion,” they intoned, repeating the line that the Lebanese opposition has been using for the last two weeks to insist that it expresses the true Lebanon. “George Bush asked for democracy. This is the true democracy," I was told repeatedly. Today, Syrians ...

"When you call me that, smile!" From the newsrooms. The Toronto Star: Bush demands Syria quit Lebanon by May George W. Bush, saying the time for delaying tactics and half-measures has passed, has set a May deadline for Syria's full withdrawal from Lebanon. ... "Today, I have a message for the people of Lebanon," Bush said. "All the world is witnessing your great movement of conscience. "Lebanon's future belongs in your hands, and by your courage, Lebanon's future will be in your hands. The American people are on your side." Reuters: IRA "must go" after N.Irish shooting offer The United States has demanded the IRA disband after the paramilitary group's astonishing offer to shoot the killers of a murdered Northern Ireland Catholic man. "It's time for the IRA to go out of business," said U.S. special envoy Mitchell Reiss on Wednesday. ... Reiss told BBC radio: "It's time for Sinn Fein...

High Noon Hezbollah's leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah came out openly in support for the Syrian-Lebanese special relationship -- a code word for the occupation of Lebanon -- at a well organized mass rally designed to counter the "Cedar Revolution" protests against Syrian occupation. He attempted to redefine the current Middle Eastern crisis, not as a contest between democratic aspirations and autocratic " Black Arabism " but as a struggle against 'US-Zionist' neocolonialism. Banners held aloft read: "No to American-Zionist intervention. Yes to Lebanese-Syrian brotherhood." "Forget about your dreams of Lebanon," Sheik Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, said at Tuesday's rally, speaking to Israel's leaders. ... "What you did not win in war, I swear, you will not win with politics." Speaking to the Bush administration, he said: "You are wrong in your calculations in Lebanon. Lebanon will not be divided. Le...

The New Belmont Club A number of readers have complained about the execrable posting response of Blogger. There's nothing I can do about Blogger, which may be a victim of its own success, as it tries to serve a very large community of users. I thought I'd let the readers know that I am building a new site on a different domain. With any luck, it will be much more capable than the current site. That's all I'd like to say for now until I get it all up and running.

Energy Futures In one scenario, which the media and the United Nations say is just within reach , the world in 2050 will be producing smaller amounts of 'Greenhouse gases' as nations reduce their fossil fuels consumption. French President Jacques Chirac called on Tuesday for developed countries to cut gas emissions to a quarter of current levels by 2050 -- exceeding targets set by the Kyoto pact to combat global warming. ... "We must go further -- divide by four by 2050 the greenhouse gas emissions of developed countries. The next G8 summit must be an opportunity for advancing in this direction," Chirac told a working group, according to the Elysee presidential palace. But the investment dollars and great states are decisively betting the exact opposite will happen. A Congressional Research Service Report Rising Energy Competition and Energy Security in Northeast Asia (available from Gallerywatch.Com )  shows that world consumption of petroleum will inc...

Hormuz Austin Bay discusses the possibility that Iran might close the Straits of Hormuz in response to US and European sanctions to prevent Teheran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The Iranians didn't actually threaten anything but simply warned of an "oil crisis" in the event they were pushed to the wall. ABC News Online says: Iran's top nuclear official has warned the United States and Europe of the danger of an oil crisis if Tehran is sent before the United Nations Security Council over its nuclear program. ... "The first to suffer will be Europe and the United States themselves, this would cause problems for the regional energy market, for the European economy and even more so for the United States," he said. The Iranians were at pains to distinguish between a 'reasonable' Europe and an intransigent United States. Teheran pointedly implied that if the whole region were destabilized the fault would lie squarely with the United States....